Q1 2026 Data Report

Prediction Market Consensus
Q1 2026 Report

Meridian Edge generates automated monthly reports analyzing prediction market consensus accuracy, settlement patterns, and divergence trends across tracked verticals.

500,000+ data points. 9 sports and event categories. Full platform divergence analysis. Free download — instant activation.

January 1 – March 31, 2026
Updated March 27, 2026
Instant activation
500K+
Consensus data points
1,800+
Unique events tracked
9
Sports & categories
3.1×
Avg platforms per event
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Data aggregated from multiple regulated prediction markets. Risk Disclosure · Terms · Privacy
Section 1

Coverage: What We Tracked

Q1 2026 prediction market consensus data by sport and event category.

Sport / Category Events Tracked Avg Consensus Avg Platforms Confidence
NBA 612 61.4% 3.2 HIGH
NHL 480 58.7% 2.8 HIGH
NFL 214 63.1% 3.5 HIGH
MLB 192 57.9% 2.4 MEDIUM
Politics 180 54.2% 4.1 HIGH
Economics 88 51.8% 3.0 MEDIUM
+ 3 more categories — full breakdown in report
Section 2

Calibration & Platform Agreement

How much do regulated prediction markets agree with each other? Q1 data reveals platform-level divergence patterns.

6.2%

Average Platform Spread

Average absolute divergence between the highest and lowest regulated source reading for the same event, across 500K+ data points.

68%

High-Quality Consensus

Percentage of events tracked with 3 or more regulated platforms reporting simultaneously — the threshold for HIGH confidence ratings.

12.4%

Peak Divergence Events

Full report includes analysis of events where platform spread exceeded 12% — indicating significant market disagreement.

Platform identities anonymized. Data reflects aggregated consensus, not individual platform pricing. For informational purposes only.
Section 3

Divergence Analysis

When regulated markets disagree, the spread reveals where pricing efficiency may be lowest.

28%

Tight Consensus (<3% spread)

Events where all regulated platforms were within 3 percentage points — indicating strong inter-platform agreement.

43%

Moderate Spread (3–7%)

The most common category: events where platforms show measurable but not extreme disagreement on probability.

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Top 10 Divergent Events

Full report includes the 10 events with highest average platform spread in Q1 — full event names and spread data included.

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Full coverage breakdown (9 categories)
Calibration analysis with confidence distribution
Top 10 divergence events (named)
Data quality metrics & methodology
API access guide for developers
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Terms · Privacy
Methodology

How the Data Was Collected

Transparent methodology — all computation described in the full report.

Data Sources

Meridian Edge aggregates publicly available pricing data from multiple regulated prediction markets. Source identities are anonymized in public-facing data as Platform A, Platform B, etc. The full report describes source count and availability by category.

Consensus Computation

Consensus probability is computed as a weighted average of individual platform prices, weighted by recency and availability. Events with only one active platform are tagged as LOW confidence. The weighting algorithm is described in the full methodology appendix.

Divergence Measurement

Spread is defined as the absolute difference between the highest and lowest platform price for the same event at the same timestamp. Higher spread indicates lower inter-platform agreement. This report uses spread as a proxy for consensus quality, not predictive value.

Limitations

Consensus data reflects market prices, not verified outcomes. The dataset covers only events listed on regulated prediction markets. Coverage is incomplete — not all real-world events are listed. Data is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Past market behavior does not predict future outcomes.