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Meridian Edge Research — Data Briefing — April 02, 2026
Daily Analysis April 02, 2026 3 min read

Prediction Market Movers — April 02, 2026

The biggest consensus probability shifts and source disagreements across 1,428 prediction markets.

Our data pipeline tracked 1,428 prediction market events over the last 24 hours. We found 1 notable probability shifts across sports markets. Here's today's breakdown.

Biggest Probability Shifts

These markets saw the largest consensus probability changes in the last 24 hours.

MarketCategory24h ChangeCurrent Consensus
Chicago Bulls vs. Edmonton Oilers (NHL) Sports ▲ 11.2% 62.5%

Analysis

The biggest move today was Chicago Bulls vs. Edmonton Oilers (NHL) — a 11.2% shift that pushed the consensus to 62.5%. Large shifts like this typically indicate new information entering the market, though they can also reflect thin liquidity. We'll continue tracking this one.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What moved in prediction markets on April 02, 2026?
Meridian Edge tracked 1,428 events. The biggest probability shift was 11.2% for Chicago Bulls vs. Edmonton Oilers (NHL).
What are prediction market probability shifts?
Probability shifts measure how much the consensus view on an event has changed over a period. Meridian Edge aggregates data from multiple regulated prediction markets to compute a single consensus probability, then tracks how that consensus changes over time.
How is prediction market consensus calculated?
Consensus is computed by aggregating publicly available pricing data from multiple regulated prediction markets. Each source is weighted by availability and recency. The result is a single probability figure updated continuously.
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Data Sources

All data in this report is derived from publicly available prediction market pricing aggregated by Meridian Edge. Consensus probabilities are computed from multiple regulated prediction markets and updated every 10 minutes. Historical dataset: 100M+ aggregated data points.

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