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Meridian Edge Research — Data Briefing — March 31, 2026
Daily Analysis March 31, 2026 3 min read

Prediction Market Movers — March 31, 2026

The biggest consensus probability shifts and source disagreements across 1,533 prediction markets.

Our data pipeline tracked 1,533 prediction market events over the last 24 hours. We found 1 notable probability shifts across sports markets. Here's today's breakdown.

Biggest Probability Shifts

These markets saw the largest consensus probability changes in the last 24 hours.

MarketCategory24h ChangeCurrent Consensus
Detroit Pistons vs Oklahoma City Thunder Sports ▼ 46.0% 2.5%

Analysis

Today's shifts were moderate — the largest being 46.0% for Detroit Pistons vs Oklahoma City Thunder. In our experience, shifts under 10% are common daily fluctuations, while moves above that threshold tend to be driven by specific catalysts.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What moved in prediction markets on March 31, 2026?
Meridian Edge tracked 1,533 events. The biggest probability shift was 46.0% for Detroit Pistons vs Oklahoma City Thunder.
What are prediction market probability shifts?
Probability shifts measure how much the consensus view on an event has changed over a period. Meridian Edge aggregates data from multiple regulated prediction markets to compute a single consensus probability, then tracks how that consensus changes over time.
How is prediction market consensus calculated?
Consensus is computed by aggregating publicly available pricing data from multiple regulated prediction markets. Each source is weighted by availability and recency. The result is a single probability figure updated continuously.
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Data Sources

All data in this report is derived from publicly available prediction market pricing aggregated by Meridian Edge. Consensus probabilities are computed from multiple regulated prediction markets and updated every 10 minutes. Historical dataset: 100M+ aggregated data points.

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