Prediction Market Movers — March 29, 2026

The biggest consensus probability shifts and source disagreements across 1,777 prediction markets.

It's been a volatile 24 hours in prediction markets. We tracked 1,777 events and found 5 with significant probability shifts — 5 of those moved more than 5 percentage points. Here's what stood out.

Biggest Probability Shifts

These markets saw the largest consensus probability changes in the last 24 hours.

Market	Category	24h Change	Current Consensus
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Montreal Canadiens (NHL)	Sports	▼ 52.9%	8.6%
Sacramento Kings vs Brooklyn Nets	Sports	▲ 43.5%	93.5%
Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors	Sports	▼ 33.1%	10.5%
Boston Celtics vs. Charlotte Hornets (NBA)	Sports	▲ 26.2%	85.2%
Boston Celtics vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (NHL)	Sports	▼ 15.5%	25.9%

Largest Source Disagreements

These markets show the widest gap between data sources — where the consensus is least settled.

Market	Category	Source Spread	Consensus	Sources
St. Louis City SC vs New York City FC	Sports	17.8%	65.8%	2
Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake	Sports	29.1%	79.5%	2
Brooklyn Nets vs. Sacramento Kings (NBA)	Sports	42.2%	67.4%	2
Boston Celtics vs. Charlotte Hornets (NBA)	Sports	17.9%	58.6%	2
Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Pelicans (NBA)	Sports	29.0%	73.2%	2

Analysis

Today's shifts were moderate — the largest being 52.9% for Carolina Hurricanes vs. Montreal Canadiens (NHL). In our experience, shifts under 10% are common daily fluctuations, while moves above that threshold tend to be driven by specific catalysts.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What moved in prediction markets on March 29, 2026?

Meridian Edge tracked 1,777 events. The biggest probability shift was 52.9% for Carolina Hurricanes vs. Montreal Canadiens (NHL).

What are prediction market probability shifts?

Probability shifts measure how much the consensus view on an event has changed over a period. Meridian Edge aggregates data from multiple regulated prediction markets to compute a single consensus probability, then tracks how that consensus changes over time.

How is prediction market consensus calculated?

Consensus is computed by aggregating publicly available pricing data from multiple regulated prediction markets. Each source is weighted by availability and recency. The result is a single probability figure updated continuously.

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Data Sources

All data in this report is derived from publicly available prediction market pricing aggregated by Meridian Edge. Consensus probabilities are computed from multiple regulated prediction markets and updated every 10 minutes. Historical dataset: 100M+ aggregated data points.