Prediction Market Movers — March 28, 2026

The biggest consensus probability shifts and source disagreements across 1,767 prediction markets.

It's been a volatile 24 hours in prediction markets. We tracked 1,767 events and found 5 with significant probability shifts — 5 of those moved more than 5 percentage points. Here's what stood out.

Biggest Probability Shifts

These markets saw the largest consensus probability changes in the last 24 hours.

Market	Category	24h Change	Current Consensus
Detroit Pistons vs Minnesota Timberwolves	Sports	▲ 52.2%	98.5%
Boston Celtics vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (NHL)	Sports	▲ 45.5%	91.5%
Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers (NBA)	Sports	▲ 36.2%	78.9%
Columbus Blue Jackets vs. San Jose Sharks (NHL)	Sports	▼ 26.1%	38.6%
Buffalo Sabres vs. Seattle Kraken (NHL)	Sports	▼ 22.5%	41.3%

Largest Source Disagreements

These markets show the widest gap between data sources — where the consensus is least settled.

Market	Category	Source Spread	Consensus	Sources
St. Louis City SC vs New York City FC	Sports	18.1%	65.5%	2
Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake	Sports	11.3%	62.4%	2
Boston Celtics vs. Charlotte Hornets (NBA)	Sports	15.7%	59.0%	2
Charlotte Hornets vs. Philadelphia 76ers (NBA)	Sports	23.1%	78.6%	2
Detroit Pistons vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (NBA)	Sports	22.2%	71.7%	2

Analysis

The biggest move today was Detroit Pistons vs Minnesota Timberwolves — a 52.2% shift that pushed the consensus to 98.5%. Large shifts like this typically indicate new information entering the market, though they can also reflect thin liquidity. We'll continue tracking this one.

Track these markets in real time with the Meridian Edge API.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What moved in prediction markets on March 28, 2026?

Meridian Edge tracked 1,767 events. The biggest probability shift was 52.2% for Detroit Pistons vs Minnesota Timberwolves.

What are prediction market probability shifts?

Probability shifts measure how much the consensus view on an event has changed over a period. Meridian Edge aggregates data from multiple regulated prediction markets to compute a single consensus probability, then tracks how that consensus changes over time.

How is prediction market consensus calculated?

Consensus is computed by aggregating publicly available pricing data from multiple regulated prediction markets. Each source is weighted by availability and recency. The result is a single probability figure updated continuously.

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Data Sources

All data in this report is derived from publicly available prediction market pricing aggregated by Meridian Edge. Consensus probabilities are computed from multiple regulated prediction markets and updated every 10 minutes. Historical dataset: 100M+ aggregated data points.