Prediction Market Movers — March 25, 2026

The biggest consensus probability shifts and source disagreements across 1,960 prediction markets.

Our data pipeline tracked 1,960 prediction market events over the last 24 hours. We found 2 notable probability shifts across sports markets. Here's today's breakdown.

Biggest Probability Shifts

These markets saw the largest consensus probability changes in the last 24 hours.

Market	Category	24h Change	Current Consensus
Atlanta Hawks vs. Detroit Pistons (NBA)	Sports	▲ 20.7%	62.2%
Anaheim Ducks vs. Vancouver Canucks (NHL)	Sports	▲ 13.4%	73.6%

Largest Source Disagreements

These markets show the widest gap between data sources — where the consensus is least settled.

Market	Category	Source Spread	Consensus	Sources
Atlanta Hawks vs. Detroit Pistons (NBA)	Sports	17.4%	48.9%	2
Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (NBA)	Sports	11.3%	41.0%	2
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat (NBA)	Sports	12.8%	52.0%	2
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat (NBA)	Sports	11.5%	60.3%	2
Indiana Pacers vs. Los Angeles Lakers (NBA)	Sports	16.9%	16.7%	2

Analysis

The biggest move today was Atlanta Hawks vs. Detroit Pistons (NBA) — a 20.7% shift that pushed the consensus to 62.2%. Large shifts like this typically indicate new information entering the market, though they can also reflect thin liquidity. We'll continue tracking this one.

Track these markets in real time with the Meridian Edge API.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What moved in prediction markets on March 25, 2026?

Meridian Edge tracked 1,960 events. The biggest probability shift was 20.7% for Atlanta Hawks vs. Detroit Pistons (NBA).

What are prediction market probability shifts?

Probability shifts measure how much the consensus view on an event has changed over a period. Meridian Edge aggregates data from multiple regulated prediction markets to compute a single consensus probability, then tracks how that consensus changes over time.

How is prediction market consensus calculated?

Consensus is computed by aggregating publicly available pricing data from multiple regulated prediction markets. Each source is weighted by availability and recency. The result is a single probability figure updated continuously.

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Data Sources

All data in this report is derived from publicly available prediction market pricing aggregated by Meridian Edge. Consensus probabilities are computed from multiple regulated prediction markets and updated every 10 minutes. Historical dataset: 100M+ aggregated data points.