Prediction Market Movers — March 24, 2026

The biggest consensus probability shifts and source disagreements across 1,560 prediction markets.

Our data pipeline tracked 1,560 prediction market events over the last 24 hours. We found 3 notable probability shifts across sports markets. Here's today's breakdown.

Biggest Probability Shifts

These markets saw the largest consensus probability changes in the last 24 hours.

Market	Category	24h Change	Current Consensus
New Orleans Pelicans vs. New York Knicks (NBA)	Sports	▼ 20.8%	24.6%
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors (NBA)	Sports	▼ 15.1%	18.4%
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL)	Sports	▲ 6.7%	45.7%

Largest Source Disagreements

These markets show the widest gap between data sources — where the consensus is least settled.

Market	Category	Source Spread	Consensus	Sources
Anaheim Ducks@Vancouver Canucks	Sports	23.3%	60.3%	2
Boston Bruins@Buffalo Sabres	Sports	26.0%	44.6%	2
Carolina Hurricanes@Montréal Canadiens	Sports	48.1%	80.0%	2
Columbus Blue Jackets@Philadelphia Flyers	Sports	12.4%	55.9%	2
Dallas Mavericks@Denver Nuggets	Sports	35.1%	18.7%	2

Analysis

Today's shifts were moderate — the largest being 20.8% for New Orleans Pelicans vs. New York Knicks (NBA). In our experience, shifts under 10% are common daily fluctuations, while moves above that threshold tend to be driven by specific catalysts.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What moved in prediction markets on March 24, 2026?

Meridian Edge tracked 1,560 events. The biggest probability shift was 20.8% for New Orleans Pelicans vs. New York Knicks (NBA).

What are prediction market probability shifts?

Probability shifts measure how much the consensus view on an event has changed over a period. Meridian Edge aggregates data from multiple regulated prediction markets to compute a single consensus probability, then tracks how that consensus changes over time.

How is prediction market consensus calculated?

Consensus is computed by aggregating publicly available pricing data from multiple regulated prediction markets. Each source is weighted by availability and recency. The result is a single probability figure updated continuously.

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Data Sources

All data in this report is derived from publicly available prediction market pricing aggregated by Meridian Edge. Consensus probabilities are computed from multiple regulated prediction markets and updated every 10 minutes. Historical dataset: 100M+ aggregated data points.