Prediction Market Consensus Report: Week of March 28, 2026
Meridian Edge tracked 79 events across 4 sport categories. Full consensus breakdown with current probabilities.
Market Overview: Week of March 28, 2026
Prediction market consensus data aggregates probability data from multiple regulated markets into a single, continuously updated figure. Meridian Edge tracked 79 events across 4 sport categories during this reporting period, updating every 10 minutes across all active markets.
NBA and NHL dominate current coverage, with 34 and 38 active matchups respectively. Both leagues are in their regular season stretch runs, generating sustained prediction market activity across regulated platforms.
Sport-by-Sport Summary
The following breakdown shows event coverage and average consensus probability by sport category for the past seven days.
| Sport | Events Tracked | Avg Yes-Side Probability | Consensus Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHL | 38 | 50.5% | tight |
| NBA | 34 | 47.3% | tight |
| MLS | 5 | 38.9% | consensus |
NBA Consensus Data: Current Slate
The following table reflects the most recent consensus probability for each active NBA matchup in the Meridian Edge dataset. Probabilities represent the yes-side (home team win, by convention) consensus figure.
| Matchup | Yes Consensus | No Consensus | Market Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics | 1.5% | 98.5% | underdog |
| Brooklyn Nets vs Angeles Lakers | 1.5% | 98.5% | underdog |
| Chicago Bulls vs Memphis Grizzlies | 61.5% | 38.5% | favorite |
| Chicago Bulls vs City Thunder | 1.5% | 98.5% | underdog |
| Dallas Mavericks vs Trail Blazers | 98.5% | 1.5% | favorite |
| Detroit Pistons vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 45.5% | 54.5% | even |
| Houston Rockets vs Memphis Grizzlies | 98.5% | 1.5% | favorite |
NHL Consensus Data: Current Slate
NHL coverage reflects active playoff-race games. Late-season games typically show stronger consensus as team trajectories become clearer to market participants.
| Matchup | Yes Consensus | No Consensus | Market Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anaheim Ducks vs Calgary Flames | 55.5% | 44.5% | favorite |
| Anaheim Ducks vs Edmonton Oilers | 41.5% | 58.5% | underdog |
| Chicago Blackhawks vs York Rangers | 2.0% | 98.0% | underdog |
| Chicago Blackhawks vs Philadelphia Flyers | 13.0% | 87.0% | underdog |
| Colorado Avalanche vs Winnipeg Jets | 65.0% | 35.0% | favorite |
How to Interpret This Data
Consensus probabilities represent the aggregated market view, not a forecast. A consensus of 65% on a team doesn't mean that team wins 65% of the time. It means regulated prediction markets are collectively assigning a 65% probability to that outcome based on current information.
Probabilities close to 50% indicate genuine market uncertainty. Probabilities above 70% or below 30% indicate strong directional consensus. The distance between these figures and actual outcomes is the subject of ongoing research into prediction market efficiency.
Data Refresh Cadence
Meridian Edge refreshes consensus data every 10 minutes. The figures in this report reflect the state of the market at time of publication and will change as events approach and as new information enters the market. Live data is accessible via the dashboard and API for subscribers.
Frequently Asked Questions
Data Sources
All data in this report is derived from publicly available prediction market pricing aggregated by Meridian Edge. Consensus probabilities are computed from multiple regulated prediction markets and updated every 10 minutes. Historical dataset: 73,616,699 aggregated data points.