Prediction Market Consensus Report: Week of March 27, 2026

Meridian Edge tracked 54 events across 3 sport categories. Full consensus breakdown with current probabilities.

Summary: This week's prediction market consensus data tracked 54 active events across NHL, NBA. The average spread across all markets was 31.7%, reflecting the degree of disagreement between regulated prediction market sources. All data is aggregated from publicly available regulated prediction markets and updated every 10 minutes. Informational only — not investment advice.

Market Overview: Week of March 27, 2026

Meridian Edge tracked 54 events across 3 sport categories during this reporting period. The data pipeline processed multiple updates per event, producing a continuously refreshed consensus probability for each active market.

NBA and NHL dominate current coverage, with 25 and 28 active matchups respectively. Both leagues are in their regular season stretch runs, generating sustained prediction market activity across regulated platforms.

"Consensus is not a point prediction. it's the aggregated probability reflecting what all participating markets collectively believe at this moment."

Sport-by-Sport Summary

The following breakdown shows event coverage and average consensus probability by sport category for the past seven days.

Sport	Events Tracked	Avg Yes-Side Probability	Consensus Type
NHL	28	51.1%	tight
NBA	25	49.6%	tight

NBA Consensus Data: Current Slate

The following table reflects the most recent consensus probability for each active NBA matchup in the Meridian Edge dataset. Probabilities represent the yes-side (home team win, by convention) consensus figure.

NBA Consensus Probabilities — Yes Side — Source: Meridian Edge aggregated consensus data

Matchup	Yes Consensus	No Consensus	Market Signal
Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics	35.0%	65.0%	underdog
Atlanta Hawks vs Detroit Pistons	62.5%	37.5%	favorite
Brooklyn Nets vs State Warriors	7.5%	92.5%	underdog
Brooklyn Nets vs Angeles Lakers	7.5%	92.5%	underdog
Chicago Bulls vs City Thunder	6.5%	93.5%	underdog
Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets	1.5%	98.5%	underdog
Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves	13.0%	87.0%	underdog

NHL Consensus Data: Current Slate

NHL coverage reflects active playoff-race games. Late-season games typically show stronger consensus as team trajectories become clearer to market participants.

Matchup	Yes Consensus	No Consensus	Market Signal
Anaheim Ducks vs Calgary Flames	55.5%	44.5%	favorite
Boston Bruins vs Buffalo Sabres	58.5%	41.5%	favorite
Chicago Blackhawks vs York Rangers	38.5%	61.5%	underdog
Chicago Blackhawks vs Philadelphia Flyers	13.0%	87.0%	underdog
Colorado Avalanche vs Winnipeg Jets	65.0%	35.0%	favorite

How to Interpret This Data

Consensus probabilities represent the aggregated market view, not a forecast. A consensus of 65% on a team doesn't mean that team wins 65% of the time. It means regulated prediction markets are collectively assigning a 65% probability to that outcome based on current information.

Probabilities close to 50% indicate genuine market uncertainty. Probabilities above 70% or below 30% indicate strong directional consensus. The distance between these figures and actual outcomes is the subject of ongoing research into prediction market efficiency.

Data Refresh Cadence

Meridian Edge refreshes consensus data every 10 minutes. The figures in this report reflect the state of the market at time of publication and will change as events approach and as new information enters the market. Live data is accessible via the dashboard and API for subscribers.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is prediction market consensus?

Prediction market consensus is an aggregated probability computed from multiple regulated prediction markets simultaneously. Meridian Edge aggregates pricing data across regulated markets to produce a single consensus figure for each event. This week, the system tracked 54 events.

How does Meridian Edge compute consensus probabilities?

Meridian Edge aggregates publicly available pricing data from multiple regulated prediction markets. The system updates every 10 minutes, weighting each data source by availability and recency. The result is a single consensus probability that reflects the aggregated market view.

Which sports are covered in the weekly consensus report?

This week's report covers NHL, NBA. Coverage expands as events are listed on regulated prediction markets.

Is prediction market consensus data reliable?

Regulated prediction markets are generally considered efficient aggregators of publicly available information. Consensus data represents the collective market view at a given moment and should be interpreted as one data point, not a prediction or guarantee of outcomes.

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Data Sources

All data in this report is derived from publicly available prediction market pricing aggregated by Meridian Edge. Consensus probabilities are computed from multiple regulated prediction markets and updated every 10 minutes. Historical dataset: 69,556,556 aggregated data points.

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