2026 MIDTERMS
NY-04 — New York's 4th District Prediction Market Consensus
The New York 4th Congressional District is identified as competitive for 2026 per nonpartisan analysts. This New York district has shown close margins in recent cycles, and prediction market participants are actively pricing the outcome. Consensus probabilities aggregate data from multiple independent platforms.
For informational purposes only. Not a forecast. Not an endorsement of any candidate or party.
Consensus Probability Overview
The NY-04 consensus probability represents the aggregated view of multiple
prediction market platforms for this competitive House district. These probabilities
reflect market participant sentiment derived from actual transaction data. Competitive
House districts often show more price movement than less contested races, as new
information is rapidly incorporated.
Meridian Edge tracks all competitive 2026 House districts identified by nonpartisan analysts,
aggregating prediction market data continuously. All data is derived and aggregated —
individual exchange prices are not displayed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the prediction market consensus for New York's 4th District in 2026?
The prediction market consensus for New York's 4th District in 2026 is the aggregated
probability derived from multiple independent prediction markets. It reflects the
collective view of market participants on the likely outcome for this competitive district.
Why is New York's 4th District considered competitive?
Per nonpartisan analysts, New York's 4th District has been identified as competitive based on
prior election margins, demographic shifts, redistricting effects, and the national
political environment. Prediction market participants factor in these dynamics when
pricing the race.
How can I access NY-04 race data via API?
The Meridian Edge API provides programmatic access to consensus probability data for
all tracked political races including NY-04. API keys with 100 calls/day
are available instantly at
the pricing page. Starter and
Pro tiers unlock higher rate limits.
Get API Access
Query NY-04 race consensus data programmatically. Plans start at $29/mo. 1,000 calls/day.
View Plans →
Need more? Starter ($29/mo) — 1,000 calls/day + divergence signals
For informational purposes only. Not a forecast. Not an endorsement of any candidate or party.
Other Competitive House Districts
Browse consensus data for all competitive 2026 House races:
View all House races →