Live consensus probability for a U.S. federal government shutdown, aggregated from multiple regulated prediction markets. Updated every 10 minutes.
Data updates every 10 minutes. Times shown in UTC. Not investment advice.
The government shutdown consensus probability aggregates contract prices from multiple regulated prediction markets into a single volume-weighted estimate. When markets agree on a high probability, it reflects broad participant confidence that a shutdown is likely within the specified timeframe. When sources diverge, it may indicate rapidly evolving negotiations or new information that has not yet been incorporated across all platforms.
Shutdown contracts typically resolve based on whether a lapse in federal appropriations occurs for any duration within the specified period. Resolution criteria vary by platform — Meridian Edge normalizes these differences in its aggregation methodology.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a forecast, endorsement, or recommendation. Participation in prediction markets involves risk of loss.