When prediction market platforms disagree, the spread between them tells a story. Here is how divergence works and what it signals.
See Plans →Summary: What happens when prediction market platforms disagree. How cross-platform divergence works, why it occurs, and what it signals.
Divergence occurs when different prediction market platforms price the same event at meaningfully different probabilities. If Platform A prices an event at 65% YES and Platform B prices it at 58% YES, the spread is 7 percentage points. That gap is the divergence.
Some divergence is normal — different platforms have different participants, different liquidity depths, and different market structures. But when the spread exceeds typical levels, it often signals something interesting.
The Meridian Edge opportunities endpoint calculates a divergence score for each event based on:
Events are ranked by composite divergence score and surfaced through the API and dashboard.
For researchers and analysts, divergence data provides insight into information flow dynamics. When platforms converge quickly after a divergence spike, it suggests efficient information propagation. When divergence persists, it may indicate structural barriers or genuinely different assessments.
Cross-platform consensus data is most valuable precisely at these moments — when you need to understand not just what one market thinks, but what the full landscape of market participants believes.
GET /api/v1/opportunities — full referenceclient.opportunities() — SDK guideDivergence is the spread between the highest and lowest price for the same event across different prediction market platforms. It measures how much platforms disagree on the probability of an outcome.
Divergence can result from information asymmetry (news reaching one platform first), liquidity differences, different participant compositions, or structural factors like fees and contract specifications.
No. Divergence data is for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice. Prediction market participation involves risk of loss.
Starter plan includes API access, the live dashboard, divergence alerts, and email digests.
See Plans →