Here's how prediction market consensus performed on March 30, 2026. We track consensus probabilities before markets close and compare them against actual outcomes to measure calibration over time.
| Event | Outcome | Consensus | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events with pre-settlement data | |||
Prediction market consensus is a probability estimate — not a certainty. Over large samples, events where markets assigned 70% confidence should resolve correctly roughly 70% of the time. Single-day snapshots will vary; the calibration picture becomes clearer over hundreds of events.
Today's accuracy of 0% across 0 events is below the historical baseline for well-calibrated markets. We track these results automatically to give you a transparent view of consensus performance.
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