About Meridian Edge

Our Mission

The prediction market industry has fragmented. There are now more than 25 regulated platforms operating across the United States and internationally, each with its own order book, its own liquidity pool, and its own version of the truth. If you wanted to know the real probability of a given event, you'd have to check a dozen tabs and do the math yourself. Nobody was building a neutral, independent consensus layer. So we built one.

We pull data from every regulated source we can get our hands on and weight it into a single consensus probability for each event. No editorializing, no house view. Just aggregation. We believe consensus — not any single platform — produces the most reliable probability estimates. That's the whole thesis. When sources disagree, the weighted average still tends to converge on reality faster than any individual market. We've seen it play out across thousands of settlements, and the data backs it up in our monthly accuracy reports.

Our Team

Our founder spent a decade in quantitative finance before building Meridian Edge. The frustration of manually checking multiple platforms for the same event drove the initial prototype. What started as a personal tool for tracking multi-market consensus turned into the platform you see today.

Our data engineering team maintains real-time collection pipelines across 25+ regulated sources, processing over 100 million data points and counting. Keeping those pipelines healthy around the clock — handling API changes, outages, format shifts — is a full-time job for multiple people. We don't take shortcuts on data quality because everything downstream depends on it.

Our research team publishes monthly consensus accuracy reports and maintains settlement verification against authoritative sources (ESPN for sports, FRED for economics, AP/Reuters for news). Every settlement we report is checked against these primary sources before it's marked final. Transparency isn't optional when people rely on your data for real decisions.

Based in California. Operated by VeraTenet LLC.

For Researchers

We provide API access to academic researchers studying forecasting accuracy, calibration, and market efficiency. Prediction markets generate some of the richest real-time probability data available anywhere, and we think that data should be accessible to people doing serious work with it.

Researchers at institutions including UPenn, GMU, and University of Michigan have used our data in studies on calibration methodology, information aggregation, and the accuracy of crowd-sourced probability estimates. We're always interested in what people find.

If you're conducting research that uses prediction market data, contact us at [email protected] with your institutional affiliation and research topic. We offer free or discounted API access for qualifying academic projects and can provide historical datasets on request.

Press & Citations

For press inquiries: [email protected]

If citing Meridian Edge data in a publication, please reference: VeraTenet LLC d/b/a Meridian Edge, meridianedge.io