Monthly Report

State of Prediction Markets
March 2026

Published 2026-03-28 · Meridian Edge Research · Data period: 2026-03-01 – 2026-03-31

Executive Summary

In March 2026, Meridian Edge tracked 12,936 unique prediction markets across sports, economics, weather, and crypto verticals. Of the 209 events that resolved, our consensus correctly predicted the outcome 40.2% of the time.

Multi-market divergences — where two markets disagreed by more than 5¢ — were detected 11,160 times, with an average spread of 13.0¢ and a peak spread of 18.5¢.

12,936

Markets Tracked

209

Events Resolved

40.2%

Consensus Accuracy

11,160

Divergences Found

Key Findings

Consensus accuracy of 40.2% across 209 resolved events — below our 70% target threshold
11,160 multi-market divergences detected — representing actionable mispricings across markets
Average divergence spread: 13.0¢, peak spread: 18.5¢
Sports vertical led in volume and accuracy — see breakdown below
API tier usage continues to grow — access consensus data at meridianedge.io/dashboard.html

Accuracy by Vertical

Settlement results breakdown by market category for March 2026.

Vertical	Total Events	Correct	Accuracy
sports	180	78	43.3%
weather	29	6	20.7%

Top Divergence Events

Largest price gaps between platforms in March 2026. These represent cases where two regulated markets disagreed most significantly on the same event.

Market Ticker	Peak Spread
EVENT-2026-EXAMPLE	+18.5¢
EVENT-2026-EXAMPLE	+18.5¢
EVENT-2026-EXAMPLE	+18.5¢
EVENT-2026-EXAMPLE	+18.5¢
EVENT-2026-EXAMPLE	+18.5¢

Access live divergences via the /opportunities endpoint.

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Risk Disclosure · Methodology